Why Haftar believes Turkish threat of military intervention is a bluff


"Haftar believes there is no need to sign a ceasefire in Libya. He believes nothing has changed on the ground. He believes all dynamics suggest Turkey is bluffing and cannot viably launch an effective military campaign, and that France will supplement whatever support lost from Russia, and that there is no genuine intl desire to rescue Serraj"



Why is France so heavily invested in Libya?


"This is why we see France going against Germany and Italy in Libya and why it is scuppering #EU attempts at unified policy. France believes North Africa is its stomping ground, and that regime changes in Tunisia and Algeria and growing West Africa antagonism are threatening its grip on Africa"



Where does Algeria stand on the Libya conflict?


"Algeria does not want to be heavily invested in Libya and finds itself in an awkward place. It does not want to abandon its neutrality but knows it has to act soon. But privately officials will acknowledge that Turkey's intervention inadvertently advances Algeria's interests"



Does Iran win if US withdraws from Iraq?


"If the US were to withdraw from IraqIran would find itself in an awkward position as it faces a mass protest movement directed at its allies in Parliament, at the government in Baghdad that it controls, at its militias, and at its very presence in Iraq itself".



EU will not easily forgive Libya's Serraj for inviting Turkish military intervention


"EU will not easily forgive Serraj for inviting Turkey. After Haftar is pushed out of Tripoli, EU will seek to empower alternative factions, reform the government, and seek to get Turkey-Libya agreements rescinded. There will also be Turkey-Russia v EU rivalry over who brokers negotiations"



What are Iran's option after US assassination of Qassem Suleimani?


"Iran will 'retaliate' without retaliating. It will want to respond without igniting war. US and Iran want to negotiate. But Iran will not come to table if it feels publicly belittled. So US will tolerate minor skirmishes as long as they do not humiliate Trump"



Why is there suddenly a diplomatic flurry over Libya?


Where the EU once watched as Haftar closed in on Libya's capital, there is now a sudden flurry of diplomacy. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has since spoken to Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Turkey's President Receb Tayyeb Erdogan on Libya, while a delegation of foreign ministers from France, Italy, and Germany are set to visit Tripoli to discuss developments with the Serraj.

So why now?



How does the storming of US embassy in Iraq alter dynamics?

In what is being seen as a diplomatic humiliation for the US as its was embassy stormed by pro-Iran protestors, this explainer looks at the impact of the recent escalation between the Washington and Tehran on the dynamics surrounding the Iraq protests.



Why Russia will not mind Turkey sending troops to Libya


In anticipation of the vote by the Turkish Parliament on whether to send troops to Libya, this is an explainer of the possible scenarios.