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Insights


All eyes on Turkey
after Haftar wins in Berlin


From Turkey’s perspective, they will argue that Erdogan is making sure to exhaust all diplomatic options so that he is not accused of warmongering when he eventually sends troops. He sought to facilitate discussions in Moscow and supported the Berlin Summit. He has engaged in dialogue with all parties. If nothing happens after all of these diplomatic initiatives, then Erdogan believes he will be in a stronger position internationally to embark on a military intervention. He has secured the support of Putin and is currently wooing the Italians who are increasingly concerned by what they perceive as Macron’s ‘bullying’ of the EU. Rather than bluffing, Erdogan may well be adopting an astute and cautious approach that may surprise an increasingly complacent Haftar.

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Why Bin Salman cannot abandon his alliance with UAE

Bin Salman’s alliance with the UAE is not solely built on personal friendship with Bin Zayed. It is also built on geopolitical realities. Aside from Abu Dhabi, Bin Salman has very few immediate alternatives.

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Why was the Kuala Lumpur Summit so significant?


A summit that brought together Turkey, Qatar, and Malaysia, a last-minute invitation for Iran, and a threat from Saudi Arabia and the UAE to Pakistan and Indonesia warning them not to attend.
Why was the Kuala Lumpur Summit significant enough to warrant such a series of diplomatic manoeuvres?

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For Turkey, Libya is as important as Syria

Turkey’s interest is not Libya itself. Unlike the UAE or Egypt, Turkey’s involvement in Libya is not ideological. Instead, it is rooted in geopolitical realities that have put Turkey in a difficult situation. A glance at an influence map of the Mediterranean points to a maritime chokehold forming on Turkey that has alarmed Ankara. A combination of Egyptian, Greek, Cypriot, and Israeli antagonism added to UAE maritime expansionism suggests a dire state (from Turkey’s perspective) with regards to influence in the Mediterranean.


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Will Sudan's army abide by civilian rule?

Although Sudan looks ostensibly to be a revolution, a fairer analysis points to a coup, a divided army that was taken advantage of by the UAE and Saudi, and an attempted plan to salvage power by Bashir that went awry.


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Who let Haftar attack Tripoli?

Haftar believes that in his advance on Tripoli, there are two possible outcomes. The first is that he seizes Tripoli itself and becomes the number one de facto power in Libya. He would then expect the international community to recognise him and the ‘stability’ that he would represent in a similar way to which the international community recognised Egypt’s Marshall Sisi after he overthrew the democratically-elected Mohamed Morsi.

The second is that even if he fails, his assault on Tripoli would set him as the most influential party in any subsequent talks. 


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Saudi Arabia is prepared to reconcile with Qatar. The UAE is not.


The UAE and Egypt appear to have been caught off-guard by King Salman’s warm reception to the initiative from Doha.


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Why Saudi Arabia and the UAE are amenable to the idea of reconciliation with Qatar


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